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VTrans2040 - Scenarios 2040


Ever-changing economic drivers, technologies, land patterns, travel behavior and market preferences means we need to look beyond current trends when planning for the future. The 2040 scenarios present different ideas about what the future might look like and its implications on transportation. From this analysis, we are able to confirm a set of policies that best position us for multiple futures.


June 20, 2017 CTB Presentation
- This presentation focuses on the freight, environment/energy, travel demand, and system and user cost assumptions. The presentation also explains how the assumptions effect each of the 2040 scenarios and their outcomes.

April 18, 2017 CTB Presentation - This presentation outlines the methodology and approach utilized in the scenario analysis. The presentation also includes an explanation of the four scenarios in the analyses.

    VTrans2040: Sketch Planning for Exploratory Scenarios


    Supporting Documents

Employment Forecasting Methodology – Technical memorandum outlining the forecasting methodology for employment in 2040 for each of the scenarios. The factors analyzed include, but is not limited to, shifts in the retail market, government/military spending and changes in manufacturing.

Environmental Methodology
– The environmental methodology technical memorandum analyzes changes in high heat days and severe storm incidents, including coastal surges driven by sea level rise, and the possible implications on the cost of maintenance for Virginia’s transportation system.

Technology Advancement Methodology – This technical memorandum specifically analyzes the technology advancements in automated vehicles. The analysis not only looks at the advancement of technology but the scale and scope of adaption in daily use.      

MetroQuest Results
– A summary of public outreach conducted during the VTrans2040 Scenario Analysis process. The MetroQuest poll provided analysts with information on Virginians’ preference on transportation funding and perceived future travel behavior.

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Transportation agencies face a significant challenge planning for long-range transportation needs at a time when traditional ways of forecasting long term trends can no longer keep up with the pace of change. Using a scenario analysis helps assess the likelihood, risks and opportunities of the scenarios and relate them to policy and investment recommendations. The purpose of the scenario exercise is to ask “What Could Happen” questions that explore the ways that trends may affect transportation investment and policy needs in the future.

The scenario analysis included both stakeholder input and research to determine the ‘levers’ that relate inputs (such as demographic and economic elements) to outputs (such as transportation demand by mode and user cost). Advisory committee input helped determine the structure of the scenarios to be examined, and also to interpret the implications of the scenarios on the basis of their outcomes.